The NFL is a league built on parity and the idea that, in any given season, any team can rise from the bottom of the standings and compete for a championship. The 2025 season proved this concept, with the Patriots going from AFC East bottom-feeder to Super Bowl participant. As we head into the 2026 season, every team’s fanbase is asking the same question: Why not us? It’s a nice thought. But here, in reality, stories like last year’s Pats come along maybe once or twice a decade. Typically, we can whittle down the true Super Bowl contenders with reasonable accuracy before the season even begins. And that’s what I’ll be doing here. I’ve considered the title cases for all 32 teams and narrowed them down to a group of seven that can realistically win a Lombardi Trophy next February. So let’s look at what makes these teams title contenders before examining the group of fringe contenders who just missed the cut, along with why they were left out. One of these seven teams will win the Super Bowl: The Rams were one unlucky two-point conversion away from earning home-field advantage in the playoffs, which may have been enough to get Sean McVay’s team to the Super Bowl. It would have been easy – and maybe even sensible – for the Rams to just run it back and hope for better luck. Instead, they traded for Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett, added a lockdown cornerback in Trent McDuffie, and then lured Aaron Donald out of retirement. They were already one of the favorites to hoist the Lombardi trophy before those additions. Now, they’re the clear favorites. They check all the boxes you look for in a title contender: The acquisition of Garrett commanded a lot of the offseason attention, but adding McDuffie and Jaylen Watson to the cornerback room could be the moves that propel L.A. over the championship hump. The Rams secondary could be pushed around and picked on last season. That’s not happening with two physical corners like McDuffie and Watson on the field. Even if opposing quarterbacks can stay upright long enough to get a pass off with Garrett and Donald collapsing the pocket, finding open receivers will be a challenge. More concerns exist on the offensive side of the ball, where an injury to Davante Adams or Puka Nacua could leave the team lacking in big-play ability. The offensive line is thin, as well, and reigning MVP Matthew Stafford needs all the protection he can get now that he’s entering his age-38 season. Still, this is the NFL's most talented roster that's led by one of the NFL’s best coaches in Sean McVay. This is a Super Bowl-or-bust season for Los Angeles. The defending champs took a few hits in the offseason, losing running back Kenneth Walker and a handful of second-tier starters along the defense. Other than that, this is largely the same team that won a title in February, and they’d be the title favorites once again if not for L.A.’s busy offseason. One thing we can bank on: Head coach Mike MacDonald will have his defense playing at an elite level once again. The defensive line has been the key to the unit’s success, and all of its key pieces return in 2026. The Seahawks are light at cornerback but will play with three safeties more often than not, so that’s more of a minor concern than it would be for other teams. There’s no reason to expect any falloff from this bunch. If safety/slot defender Nick Emmanwori, an All-Rookie selection a year ago, makes the leap and plays at an All-Pro level, the Seahawks' defense may even improve over last season. There are some offensive concerns with coordinator Klint Kubiak becoming the Raiders' head coach. MacDonald went outside the building to find his replacement but went back to Kyle Shanahan’s coaching tree to poach 49ers assistant Brian Fleury. Big plays powered the Seahawks' offense – and offset some of quarterback Sam Darnold’s turnover issues – so his primary task will be keeping Seattle’s explosive play rate up. If the first-time offensive coordinator can do that and help Darnold cut down on the turnovers, Seattle will be just as formidable as the loaded Rams. The Ravens have not been a well-coached team the past two seasons. If new head coach Jesse Minter can clean up penalties and coverage busts on defense, it will go a long way. And if new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle, who comes over from Ben Johnson’s staff in Chicago, can get Lamar Jackson back to his MVP form, Baltimore can regain its place among the AFC's contenders after last year’s disappointment. The defense will almost certainly be better. Minter, one of the sharpest defensive minds in the sport, got top-10 results out of a Chargers' defense with far less talent than what he’ll be working with in Baltimore. The pass rush gets two major boosts with Nnamdi Madibuike returning from injury and Trey Hendrickson joining from the rival Bengals. Depth is a concern, but if this unit is healthy and Minter lives up to the hype, this will be a championship-level defense. Jackson’s play will determine if the offense can keep up. The two-time MVP battled injuries throughout 2026 and didn’t play his best ball when he was on the field. Jackson took far too many sacks last season, but he says he wasn’t as eager to leave the pocket last season because of the injuries and vowed to run more now that he’s healthy. That should help the two-time MVP get his groove back and elevate this offense back into the top-10. The 2025 Chiefs showed us that rostering an elite quarterback isn’t enough to keep a team in title contention. So, while it feels like Josh Allen is capable of carrying the Bills to a Super Bowl, only one or two things have to go wrong for them to experience their own season from hell. Buffalo has just enough quality around Allen to make this shortlist of contenders. The offensive line, which powered one of the league’s best run games a season ago, lost left guard David Edwards to free agency, but everybody else is back. Running back James Cook is primed for another monster season, and the receiving corps added the perimeter threat it so desperately needed with the trade for D.J. Moore. No more relying on Keon Coleman for downfield targets. The Bills' offense won’t change much, but with Sean McDermott out as head coach, Buffalo’s defense is getting a makeover. First-year defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard has been a favorite among football nerds for years thanks to his work in the college ranks. McDermott ran a structurally sound defense, but smart quarterbacks had no trouble picking it apart. Leonhard’s scheme will give them more to think about. Denver’s Super Bowl aspirations still hinge on quarterback Bo Nix. A fractured ankle robbed him of a chance to prove he could lead the Broncos to a Super Bowl, but he’ll get another crack at it with another strong roster. Denver did lose a stout run defender in John Franklin-Myers and starting safety P.J. Locke, but the defense is stacked, and the front office used the money saved from those departures to add some firepower to the passing game in the form of receiver Jaylen Waddle. Everything is in place for a Super Bowl run … if the quarterback play is sufficient. There will be a new voice in Nix’s ear this season, with head coach Sean Payton relinquishing play-calling duties to Davis Webb. The first-time offensive coordinator is just three years into his coaching career and has never called plays in a game that counts. It’s impossible to know how he’ll handle the monumental task; but even if he falters, having a Hall of Fame play-caller as a "break glass in case of emergency" option lowers the concern. If you’re wondering how the Eagles managed to win 11 games and another NFC East title while the offense was imploding on and off the field, just look to the other side of the ball. Philadelphia’s defense finished as a top-three unit for a second year in a row and carried the team back to the playoffs. The ceiling could be even higher in 2026. The Eagles patched up the biggest hole in their defense by adding cornerback Riq Woolen to play opposite of star Quinyon Mitchell. Philly’s pass defense was solid last season but struggled to get off the field on third down. Coordinator Vic Fangio prefers man coverage in third-and-medium situations, but with Adoree Jackson or Kelee Ringo getting torched, it wasn’t an effective strategy. While Woolen isn’t an elite cover corner by any means, he is a ball-hawk who can create turnovers if teams repeatedly try him. A secondary is as strong as its weakest link, and Philly’s weakest link will be sturdier this season. On the defensive line, the Eagles are banking on development from young players like Jalyx Hunt and Nolan Smith Jr. to make up for their numerous offseason losses. They also added veteran edge rusher Jonathan Greenard, who comes over after a down season in Minnesota. If Philadelphia can get just average pass rush production from its defensive ends, this could be the NFL’s best defense, which will keep the defending NFC East champs in contention even if the offensive issues persist. The Texans are included here solely out of respect for Demeco Ryans' defense, which would have been good enough to drag Houston’s frustrating offense through the AFC playoffs if not for C.J. Stroud picking the worst time to play his worst-ever game. The Texans quarterback averaged 4.5 yards per attempt and threw four interceptions in the season-ending loss to the Patriots. Three of those picks were thrown over a nine-play stretch that staked New England to a double-digit lead that felt insurmountable based on how the Houston offense was playing. So, why should we expect a different outcome next January? For starters, Stroud is a much better quarterback than he showed last postseason. He may not be the franchise savior he appeared to be after his rookie season, but he’s capable of producing top-10 play for long stretches. With a truly elite defense, that’s good enough to make a run. Houston also improved its offensive line, which has been the root cause of its problems over the past few seasons. And with Stroud entering his second season in coordinator Nick Caley’s offense, there should be fewer growing pains for the offense early on. If this offense can be just mediocre, the Texans should run up another double-digit season. If Stroud can avoid another postseason stinker, the ceiling is much higher. These teams could sneak into the Super Bowl — but they aren’t winning it. The Patriots have a better roster than they did a year ago, and new WR1 A.J. Brown is a perfect match for Drake Maye’s game. But the defense is due for regression against a tougher slate of quarterbacks than in 2025, and the offensive line remains a work in progress. This offense has the potential to reach some serious highs, but we’ve been saying that for years now, and Joe Burrow and Co. have yet to produce a truly elite season. While the defense has improved, it still looks like a mediocre group at best. The Lions still haven’t filled the Graham Glasgow-sized hole in the middle of its offensive line and are banking on a Dolphins castoff or a rookie to hold down the fort at right tackle with Penei Sewell swinging over to the left side. Detroit needs its offensive line to return to elite status to get this team back on track for title contention. I’m not sure it can. The Jaguars are an organization on the rise, but they’re still another strong offseason – and another leap from Trevor Lawrence – away from being a true title threat. If the defense avoids regression and Lawrence finds consistency, they’re capable of a deep postseason run. Even then, it’s difficult to imagine them going toe-to-toe with the NFL’s top contenders. The roster is old and already injured. If this were Madden, and we could turn off injuries, the 49ers would have enough talent to challenge Seattle and Los Angeles in the NFC West. But we can’t, and they probably won’t. Even Ben Johnson knows that the regression gods are out to get Chicago this season after riding last year’s devil magic to a divisional title and an impressive playoff run. The Bears are headed in the right direction, but progress isn’t linear, and the division will be tougher, with Detroit and Minnesota likely to improve. Patrick Mahomes is coming off a late-season ACL tear, and the Chiefs made no meaningful improvements to the roster outside of adding running back Kenneth Walker. It will be another uphill climb just to make the playoffs. If not for Mahomes, they’d be nowhere near this list.
